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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 16-J.Scott punts 25 yards to CHI 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP