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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NE
32.7%
LV
67.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.208 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) +0.202 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.101 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
LV 26
Projected margin: LV by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Demario Douglas WR Out Concussion
Matt Judon LB Out Elbow
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Concussion
Cody Davis S Out Knee
Riley Reiff T Out Knee
Cole Strange G Out Knee
Tyrone Wheatley T Out Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Chest
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Foot
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Shoulder
Josh Uche LB Questionable Knee
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Shoulder

LV

Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle
Justin Herron T Out Concussion
Jakorian Bennett CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
LV 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:57 FG LV (6:57) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NE 0 – LV 3
  • Q2 12:27 TD LV (12:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – LV 9
  • Q2 08:42 FG NE (8:42) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:14 FG LV (:14) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NE 3 – LV 13
  • Q3 08:59 TD NE (8:59) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 15-E.Elliott. 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – LV 13
  • Q3 03:58 FG LV (3:58) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NE 10 – LV 16
  • Q4 13:06 FG LV (13:06) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NE 10 – LV 19
  • Q4 03:36 TD NE (3:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – LV 19
  • Q4 01:52 SAF LV (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 91-B.Nichols and 98-M.Crosby). NE 17 – LV 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:57) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:05) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to LV 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 18 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to LV 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (8:42) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NE 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 27-M.Bryant to NE 27 for 14 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (:14) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:58) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to LV 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 3-D.Carter to LV 35 for 13 yards (49-J.Cardona). LV-37-T.Hall was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (13:06) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:31) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NE 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.