Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 94

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(1:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to LV 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.95 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.62 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model