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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 19, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model