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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NE 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP