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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 24

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model