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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
26.9%
JAX
73.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): -0.039 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Denzel Perryman LB Out Hand
Jalen Pitre S Out Chest
Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring
Tavierre Thomas CB Out Hand
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee

JAX

Antonio Johnson S Out Hamstring
Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder
Josh Hines-Allen LB Questionable Shoulder
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 37
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 TD HOU (7:39) 31-D.Pierce left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 07:30 TD HOU (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – JAX 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 17 – JAX 0
  • Q3 11:20 TD JAX (11:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – JAX 6
  • Q3 04:39 FG JAX (4:39) 10-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 17 – JAX 10
  • Q3 04:35 TD HOU 10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – JAX 10
  • Q4 12:39 FG HOU (12:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 27 – JAX 10
  • Q4 10:45 TD JAX (10:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 27 – JAX 16
  • Q4 09:08 TD HOU (9:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 33 – JAX 17
  • Q4 02:14 FG HOU (2:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 37 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:31) 16-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on HOU-20-K.Hollman, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 37.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (11:36) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (1:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 33 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (12:02) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke, RECOVERED by HOU-35-J.Hansen at JAX 41.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:06) 16-T.Zentner punts 54 yards to JAX 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-J.Hansen.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:26) 16-T.Zentner punts 41 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (4:39) 10-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (12:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (2:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.