Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 85

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(4:06) 16-T.Zentner punts 54 yards to JAX 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-J.Hansen.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model