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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP