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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 10-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model