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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 8

Houston Texans 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model