Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- CIN defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
BAL
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:15 TD BAL (7:15) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 0
- Q2 13:31 TD CIN (13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 6
- Q2 09:19 FG BAL (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – CIN 7
- Q2 03:05 FG CIN (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. BAL 10 – CIN 10
- Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – CIN 10
- Q3 08:44 TD BAL (8:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – CIN 10
- Q3 02:38 TD CIN (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CIN 16
- Q4 11:42 TD BAL (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – CIN 17
- Q4 03:32 TD CIN (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CIN 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 41Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%
(3:23) 9-J.Tucker 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%
(1:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%
(9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%
(:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(9:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 31 for 2 yards (49-J.Bachie; 26-T.Anderson).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(7:47) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 46%
(5:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 36 for 9 yards (29-A.Washington).