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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model