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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP