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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model