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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 31 for 2 yards (49-J.Bachie; 26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model