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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Saturday 2023-01-14 · 16:30 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SEA
22.6%
SF
77.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.212 vs Geno Smith (SEA) -0.032 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 17
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

SEA

Xavier Crawford CB Questionable Hamstring
Phil Haynes G Questionable Ankle
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Ankle
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Knee

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Ambry Thomas CB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 23
–
SF 41

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 FG SF (10:16) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 05:17 TD SF (5:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 5 YAC SEA 0 – SF 9
  • Q2 13:19 TD SEA (13:19) 9-K.Walker left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 10
  • Q2 07:45 FG SF (7:45) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 7 – SF 13
  • Q2 05:08 TD SEA (5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC SEA 13 – SF 13
  • Q2 00:17 FG SF (:17) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 14 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:01 FG SEA (:01) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – SF 16
  • Q3 07:19 TD SF (7:19) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – SF 22
  • Q4 14:10 TD SF (14:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 25-E.Mitchell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 9 YAC SEA 17 – SF 29
  • Q4 11:04 TD SF (11:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 66 YAC SEA 17 – SF 37
  • Q4 04:59 FG SF (4:59) 9-R.Gould 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 17 – SF 41
  • Q4 01:52 TD SEA (1:52) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC SEA 23 – SF 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to SF 36, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%

    (10:16) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to SF 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (7:45) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 16 for no gain (6-D.Gray).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%

    (:17) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 24 for 16 yards (59-J.Rhattigan; 44-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (4:59) 9-R.Gould 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 88-C.Johnson pushed ob at SF 45 for 5 yards (22-J.Jenkins). 2 YAC