Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(11:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 24 for 16 yards (59-J.Rhattigan; 44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model