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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model