Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 14 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(1:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.39 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model