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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-8 HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

10-6 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 20:20 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

PIT
51.5%
BAL
48.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.138 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.054 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22 15–29
–
BAL 21 14–28
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

PIT

Tre Norwood S Out Hamstring
Myles Jack LB Questionable Groin
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Toe

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Knee
Marcus Peters CB Out Calf
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Illness
Calais Campbell DE Questionable Knee
Geno Stone S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 16
–
BAL 13

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:04 FG PIT (7:04) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – BAL 0
  • Q2 14:12 FG BAL (14:12) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 3 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:11 TD BAL (:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – BAL 9
  • Q3 09:35 FG BAL (9:35) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 3 – BAL 13
  • Q3 03:47 FG PIT (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 6 – BAL 13
  • Q4 09:47 FG PIT (9:47) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 9 – BAL 13
  • Q4 01:02 TD PIT (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen]. PIT 15 – BAL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (7:04) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (14:12) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:53) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims. PENALTY on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 36.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 80%

    (3:35) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%

    (9:35) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%

    (:52) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims. PENALTY on PIT-37-E.Riley, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (9:47) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 53%

    (8:47) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-J.Proche pushed ob at BAL 36 for 2 yards (13-M.Boykin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:25) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →