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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP