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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP