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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(:52) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims. PENALTY on PIT-37-E.Riley, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model