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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model