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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
29.0%
PHI
71.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Gardner Minshew (PHI): +0.327 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Marcus Maye S Out Shoulder
Andrus Peat G Out Ankle
Dwayne Washington RB Out Illness
Chase Hansen LB Questionable Knee
Justin Evans S Questionable Shoulder
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen
Chris Olave WR Questionable Hamstring
Pete Werner LB Questionable Hamstring

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Groin
Avonte Maddox CB Out Toe
Jalen Hurts QB Doubtful right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
PHI 10

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:07 TD NO (6:07) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 08:35 FG NO (8:35) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 10 – PHI 0
  • Q2 03:08 FG NO (3:08) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 13 – PHI 0
  • Q3 11:03 FG PHI (11:03) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NO 13 – PHI 3
  • Q3 00:58 TD PHI (:58) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – PHI 9
  • Q4 05:31 TD NO (5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – PHI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to PHI 1 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:03) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 29 for 9 yards (48-P.Johnson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

    (13:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to PHI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (11:35) 13-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NO 42, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (8:35) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:10) 13-B.Kern punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 30 for 3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (3:08) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:19) 13-B.Kern punts 38 yards to NO 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (11:03) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:39) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to PHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:55) 13-B.Kern punts 26 yards to NO 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 35%

    (2:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-20-P.Werner.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to PHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PHI-54-S.Bradley was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:16) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NO 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 32 for 6 yards (58-K.Johnson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 26%

    (8:35) (No Huddle) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to 50 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 38%

    (6:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.