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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 13-B.Kern punts 38 yards to NO 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP