Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

(7:10) 13-B.Kern punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 30 for 3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model