4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 13-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NO 42, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.26 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP