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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to PHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PHI-54-S.Bradley was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model