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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2022-12-25 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
35.1%
MIA
64.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.241 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.019 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

David Bakhtiari T Doubtful Knee

MIA

River Cracraft WR Doubtful Calf
Eric Fisher T Doubtful Calf
Myles Gaskin RB Questionable Illness
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Knee
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe S Questionable Hamstring
Jeffery Wilson RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 26
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 FG MIA (11:15) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. GB 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 09:30 FG GB (9:30) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 3 – MIA 3
  • Q1 09:21 TD MIA (9:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIA 9
  • Q1 04:14 TD GB (4:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – MIA 10
  • Q2 10:55 TD MIA (10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – MIA 16
  • Q2 04:23 FG MIA (4:23) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. GB 10 – MIA 20
  • Q2 00:07 FG GB (:07) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 13 – MIA 20
  • Q3 07:58 TD GB (7:58) 28-A.Dillon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – MIA 20
  • Q4 11:49 FG GB (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 23 – MIA 20
  • Q4 02:06 FG GB (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 26 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 79%

    (11:15) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (9:30) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (4:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 6-D.Leavitt up the middle to GB 20 for no gain (98-R.Davis).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (4:23) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIA 36, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson. PENALTY on GB-45-E.Wilson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 49%

    (1:03) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson to MIA 30 for 10 yards (21-E.Rowe).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (:07) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:07) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to GB 33 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins; 52-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:34) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (26-D.Savage, 31-A.Amos).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (2:30) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.