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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model