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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 10 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 6-D.Leavitt up the middle to GB 20 for no gain (98-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model