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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 20 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (26-D.Savage, 31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model