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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model