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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PIT
39.2%
ATL
60.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Kenny Pickett (PIT): -0.103 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PIT

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring
Malik Reed LB Questionable Back
Jaylen Warren RB Questionable Hamstring
T.J. Watt LB Questionable Ribs

ATL

Chuma Edoga G Questionable Knee
Jalen Dalton DT Questionable Toe
Arnold Ebiketie LB Questionable Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 19
–
ATL 16

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:38 FG PIT (7:38) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 13:39 FG PIT (13:39) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 6 – ATL 0
  • Q2 09:20 FG ATL (9:20) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. PIT 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 07:12 TD PIT (7:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 83-Co.Heyward for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – ATL 3
  • Q2 05:10 FG ATL (5:10) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. PIT 13 – ATL 6
  • Q2 01:34 FG PIT (1:34) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 16 – ATL 6
  • Q3 04:49 FG PIT (4:49) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 19 – ATL 6
  • Q3 00:51 TD ATL (:51) (No Huddle) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – ATL 12
  • Q4 05:29 FG ATL (5:29) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. PIT 19 – ATL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (7:38) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-48-L.McCullough. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 14. 82-S.Sims to PIT 14 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (13:39) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 20 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (9:20) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (5:10) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (1:34) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 13, Center-48-L.McCullough. 82-S.Sims to PIT 14 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to PIT 10, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (4:49) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 69%

    (9:30) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier left end to PIT 34 for 2 yards (90-T.Watt).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (5:29) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 60%

    (:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to ATL 2, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.