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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to ATL 2, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP