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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model