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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model