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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model