Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- HOU defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Davis Mills (HOU): -0.073 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- HOU offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- PHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
PHI
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:42 TD HOU (9:42) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 10-D.Mills pass short left to 84-T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – HOU 6
- Q1 01:36 TD PHI (1:36) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – HOU 7
- Q2 04:37 TD PHI (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – HOU 7
- Q2 00:43 TD HOU (:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Moore. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – HOU 13
- Q3 08:10 TD PHI (8:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – HOU 14
- Q3 01:18 FG HOU (1:18) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. PHI 21 – HOU 17
- Q4 11:26 TD PHI (11:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – HOU 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(1:36) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 52%
(13:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(10:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to PHI 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 8 yards (2-T.Thomas).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:58) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to HOU 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-D.King to HOU 36 for -2 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 65%
(9:57) 8-A.Siposs punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-D.King.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(1:18) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%
(8:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to HOU 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-D.King.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(1:36) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 35 for 1 yard (58-C.Kirksey).