4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 57

Houston Texans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP