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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 35 for 1 yard (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.09 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model