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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 51

Houston Texans 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 29

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model