Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 56

Houston Texans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(10:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to PHI 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 8 yards (2-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.28 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model