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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Thursday 2022-10-27 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BAL
37.9%
TB
62.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.147 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.045 EPA/dropback
  • TB defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

BAL

Calais Campbell DE Out Illness
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Knee
Rashod Bateman WR Questionable Foot
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Hamstring
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Quadricep
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Abdomen
Josh Bynes LB Questionable Quadricep
Gus Edwards RB Questionable Knee

TB

Cameron Brate TE Out Neck
Carlton Davis CB Out Hip
Russell Gage WR Out Hamstring
Luke Goedeke G Out Foot
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Quadricep
Antoine Winfield S Out Concussion
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Foot
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
TB 22

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 FG BAL (11:06) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 06:58 TD TB (6:58) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – TB 6
  • Q1 00:30 FG TB (:30) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. BAL 3 – TB 10
  • Q3 09:10 TD BAL (9:10) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-K.Drake for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – TB 10
  • Q3 00:11 TD BAL (:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – TB 10
  • Q4 12:30 FG TB (12:30) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. BAL 17 – TB 13
  • Q4 07:00 TD BAL (7:00) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – TB 13
  • Q4 04:57 FG TB (4:57) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. BAL 24 – TB 16
  • Q4 02:16 FG BAL (2:16) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 27 – TB 16
  • Q4 00:53 TD TB (:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-4-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 27 – TB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (11:06) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:18) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-J.Darden to TB 37 for 18 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 46-N.Moore).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (:30) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%

    (12:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to BAL 6, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-10-S.Miller.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to BAL 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 7 yards (88-C.Otton).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Robinson (35-J.Dean).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:13) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to BAL 10, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 23 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 38%

    (7:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (12:30) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (4:57) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (2:16) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-4-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined.