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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Robinson (35-J.Dean).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.32 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model