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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.02 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP