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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model