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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to BAL 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 7 yards (88-C.Otton).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model